Dealer Errors: "Do the Right Thing"

Anyone who has played a decent amount of blackjack knows dealers make the occasional mistake. They are typically quite rare, but they happen more frequently than a lot of people suspect. Changing player cash, adding hand totals, blackjack payouts: there is a lot of math to keep track of, and dealers are as human as us all. 

In fact, on my recent trip to Vegas, dealers made errors in both of my first two blackjack sessions. An experienced dealer, distracted by conversation, paid my pushed 17 and the next day a dealer swept my bet into the rack on another push, only to get corrected by me. Investment in attention pays good dividends.

The worst, and rarest dealer mistake I’ve encountered occurred at Harrah’s in Murphy, North Carolina. It’s a decent sized casino, although a baby compared to the monolithic mega-casinos of Vegas. I had just picked a $25 table to begin another session, laying $200 on the felt in front of me. The dealer spread the five $20 and two $50 bills, and proceeded to stack THREE hundred in chips!

“Changing three hundred,” he called to the pit critters behind him. I had to casually double check the math in my head a couple of times, before concluding the $50 bills, as relatively uncommon, had thrown him off. As often happens, the pit boss was busy and didn’t visually verify the payout; this time the lapse in procedure cost them $100.

I retold the experience to a non-gambling friend of mine, and she asked me if I did “the right thing.” Although it was opposite her meaning, I assured her that I very much did “the right thing” and kept the money. 

I will not feel weepy for a casino that pays me too much money. Casinos are not philanthropic entities, insuring social well-being; they are predatory, and exist mostly to relieve suckers and addicts of their money. In fact, that mistake was virtually my only win for the evening. 

There were three other players at the table, and I’m not sure they noticed, but they certainly joined my silence. I’m pretty sure the couple beside me briefly discussed the event in Chinese, before leaving the table a short time afterwards. I played for about half hour myself, and then went for a late dinner.

“Aren’t you worried the dealer will get in trouble?” my friend continued. I reasoned that if the casino makes these kinds of mistakes in the front of the house, I can only imagine what kind of shenanigans operate away from the public eye. Ray Charles might be head of surveillance. 

At the end of the evening, I changed my chips at the cashier. The young guy briefly chatted as he counted my money. “Counting money all day is hard. Sometimes your brain sees different than your eyes,” he remarked. We chuckled as I folded the bills in my wallet. 

“Weird,” I responded with a smile, and left for my truck in the night air.

This Bet Is Yuuuge (Part 2)

As I struggle to find a reason to ever get out of bed again, I ruminate upon the largest bet I’ve ever lost. Yeah, Trump’s upset cost me $750; I’ve lost bigger poker pots, but never a single bet. The real loss makes the even mention of money profane.

I’ve never been more wrong in my life; and, the world literally burned around me. Controlled wildfires in the woods around Chattanooga filled the air with smoke, irritating the lungs, with local officials recommending people stay indoors. Then, Gatlinburg, Tennessee’s vacation Mecca, burned to ashes.

The 2016 presidential election represents a previously unfathomable betrayal. But worse, this loss is a death, more accurately a national suicide, with Trump as the bullet exploding the country’s brain. America is dead, it’s proud democracy a failure.

Voters and political pundits discounted Trump’s rhetorical skill, refusing to acknowledge the 4^th grade vocabulary and gorilla speak of a schoolyard bully. But now, even the educators, professional thinkers and talkers, must relearn a painful lesson: fear and rage are often more powerful than logic and empathy.

People mocked Trump’s business acumen, listing a litany of failed enterprises, scams, defaults, and bankruptcies: nearly a billion dollar loss in a single year. They laughed at his vague assertion that he “makes the best deals,” while he weaved his most sinister one before their eyes: a 60 million vote con-job.

But, how would a gambler handle the national tragedy? Double down…

Now, the glimmer of impeachment has begun, I may get some money back. I put money on Trump not making it through his four years. I get double if he doesn’t live through it. It’s the first time, to my recollection, I have bet on someone’s death; and I’m certainly NOT cheering for anyone to die, buuuuuttt I do stand to make a couple extra bucks. Fast food is not a good diet, golf carts are not exercise, and Trump is past average life expectancy. Tick, tock mother fucker.

Oh Canada!: NHL Fantasy Franchise Bet

            As I made my yearly journey to down Alabama for a Fantasy Football draft, the other owners tried to bring me into a long-term bet on the NFL. The bottom ten teams in the NFL were drafted, with the owner owing $100 each year until one of them wins the Super Bowl. A version had just finished with the Bronco’s victory last season, the winner taking $7,000. The boys wanted me to take the Dolphins, and I gave it serious consideration, before passing.

            The bet intrigued me enough to mention it to a few hockey friends and we set up a similar version with the NHL. We decided on an auction style draft, going up from the bottom of the standings, starting each team at $5. Montreal earned the most competitive bidding, before I won it with $50. Buffalo shocked us all, when the amount jumped straight to $40. I gave a pity $5 offer for Columbus, before reselling them for $10.

            The rules are quite simple:

• The bet continues until one of the teams wins The Stanley Cup.
• If a team loses in the final, the owner is excused from payment for the following season.
• Full payment is due at the start of each season, and the funds are kept in an interest bearing account.
• An owner can opt out at anytime for any team, but may not reenter the bet.
• Teams can be sold for equal or greater value.
• The bet can be dissolved if all the owners agree, and money will be refunded based on contributions.

Because Canada had a miserable 2015-2016 season, every team except Ottawa was available. I ended up with four Canadian teams and hope I can get two “lotto tickets” into the playoffs each season. But, since the last of the teams to win The Cup was Colorado in 2001, this could potentially be the longest term bet I ever embark upon. Let the action begin.

Colorado	Mine	(17) resold 40
Montreal	Mine	50
Buffalo	Player R	40
Arizona	Player R	10
Winnipeg	Player (Jo)	(10) resold 25
Calgary	Mine	10
Columbus	Player (Jo)	(5) resold 10
Vancouver	Mine	(13) resold 15
Edmonton	Mine	16
Toronto	Mine	12

Update: After no winner for first three years, one owner dropped out, and his teams were resold. I added two teams and now have committed $143 every year until the bet concludes. Yikes.

Year	Me	Player R	Player Ja	Player Jo	Total(w Interest)
2017	88	50	40	10	188 (190)
2018	88	50	40	10	376 (380)
2019	88	50	40	10	564 (578)
2020	143	50		35	792 (827)
2021	143	50		35	1,020 (1,060)
2022	93	50		35	1,198 (1,248)

Update: 2021 marked the first time a team made the Stanley Cup Finals, when Montreal fluked their way into a deep Covid year run.

This Bet Is Yuuuge

In a lifetime of gambling, I’ve bet on some pretty unusual and fairly important outcomes before: careers, relationships, pregnancy…long term wagers that affect lives. But I don’t suppose any speculation I’ve done to date can measure with this race for President of The United States, in the year of our Lord 2016.

Early in the festivities, way before the Trump clown army ramped into full gear, I was desperate to go big (BIG) against the Cheeto-colored buffoon, and his hands so tiny, they’d struggle to lift one decent moral fiber.

I could never find any players who wanted to swim in the deep end, but I did give up some big odds on a couple smaller bets that should just about cover my titanic bar tab that will float me through the dark night.

Trump never had a chance. Logic tells us a country that twice elected Obama will not suddenly turn racist and trust the most important political office in the world to a bigoted con-artist. Plain and simple, if you voted Trump, you are on the wrong side of history, aligned with the weakest, slug-like creatures that slime their way blindly through the excrement of our national soul.

And no, I’m not particularly overjoyed with Secretary Clinton either, but I live in a solid red state, so my vote doesn’t really matter much, thanks to the Electoral College process. Bare bones minimum, she’s qualified for the job of running my country, but I didn’t vote for her either.

But, I’m gonna be louder than hell when she wins; and I'm gonna hoist round after round to the cheers of “You’re Fired!” ©

The Juice Will Murder You!

Experiment:

This NFL season I have decided to embark upon a great undertaking. Dismayed that I didn’t want to join his “free” Fantasy League with him, a friend has proposed that we pick every game on the 17 week schedule. I suppose this is the gambling equivalent of running a football marathon.

At first he simply wanted to pick the winner of each game. Perhaps I shouldn’t have, but I pointed out that I’d just take the favorite for each game, since I can’t beat the Vegas line. This seemed like no fun, so we settled picking against the lines he would post before the first game of each week. He even created a webpage that would time stamp and email picks to both of us. We agreed upon $25 a week and we were off and racing.

Since I will be forced to mull over the lines for each and every NFL game this season, as a side challenge, I decided to pick games that I feel particularly confident about, and place a theoretical $100 or $200 bet.

Hypothesis:

My season average against the predictions of professional bookmakers will likely fall somewhere between .450 and .550. But, if I were to place actual bets on the games, even if I proved better than 50% accurate, it is highly unlikely that I will be able to beat a basic 10% bookmaker’s commission, or “juice.”

Results:

NFL Week	Win/Loss	Opponent Record	My Record	My Season Total	Cumulative Average	Hypothetical Side Bet (total)
1	Loss	9-6-1	7-8-1	7-8-1	.467	-200(-200)
2	Win	6-10	9-7	16-15-1	.516	+100(-100)
3	Win	6-10	10-6	26-21-1	.553	+300(+200)
4	Win	6-9	9-6	35-27-1	.565	-100(+100)
5	Win	3-10-1	7-6-1	42-33-2	.560	+200(+300)
6	Win	6-7-1	7-6-1	49-39-3	.557	-200(+100)
7	Win	8-5	9-5	58-44-3	.568	+100(+200)
8	Loss	7-5-1	5-7-1*	63-51-4	.553	+100(+300)
9	Loss	8-3	7-6#	70-57-4	.551	-100(+200)
10	Tie	5-9	5-9	75-66-4	.532	-100(+100)
11	Win	2-10-1	11-2-1%	86-68-5	.558	+100(+200)
12	Win	7-9	8-8	94-76-5	.553	+100(+300)
13	Tie	6-10	6-10	100-86-5	.538	+100(+400)
14	Tie	9-6-1	9-6-1	109-92-6	.542	+200(+600)
15	Loss	12-3	9-6	118-98-6	.546	+200(+800)
16	Win	8-8	10-6	128-104-6	.552	-100(+700)
17	Win	6-10	10-6	138-110-6	.556	+100(+800)

*Missed TEN@HOU
#Opponent failed to pick JAC@NYJ and TEN@NO
%Opponent failed to pick NYJ@HOU

Analysis:
I'm tempted to feel pride at achieving a .556 average against the spread, slightly above my anticipated ceiling result. If I had placed $100 on every game I picked, I would've won $2,800 without calculating commission. For 254 games, at 10% ($2,540 in juice), that would leave me with a net profit of $260 on $25,400 worth of action. Peanuts.

When you factor in my undeniable luck this year, the stress free nature of hypothetical betting, and the significant advantage of capturing the lines on Wednesday, then waiting until Sunday to make picks, it's hard to imagine I could've earned a net gain.

My hypothetical side bet netted $800 on 62 wagers. After 10% commission, I am left with $180 profit on $6,800 action. Popcorn.