Parlay the Moneyline: The Tricks of My Longest Sports-Betting Win Streak

 

Two weeks, Eleven games, Twelve bets, Nine Hundred jellybeans

For boom or bust, sports-gambling has sunk its claws into the online marketplace. In Tennessee, you can bet virtually any game in the world, all while sucking down Jack Daniels in your favorite watering hole. This type of availability can be dangerous for some, but played correctly, it can offer a pathway to easy money. Online gambling aided my longest win streak of sports-betting.

The sport was NFL and NCAA football and the streak began in the luxurious confines of the Bellagio Sportsbook, where even there (perhaps especially there), beautiful women, in tight-fitting MGM gear, urge gamblers to “try the app.” They want their customers to gamble, and gamble everywhere. Who needs to walk twenty feet when you can fire up your phone and plunk down a cool grand on the World Cricket finals?

Now, I’m just a recreational dabbler in games of chance, and not a pro by any means, but these methods can be profitable in the world of sports-betting (especially the FREE MONEY part).

            1) Online sites offer great bonuses just for making the first deposit. And the better ones continue to entice the inveterate sports prognosticators with odds so good, it amounts to free money. Add free daily pools into the mix and it’s possible to build a little bankroll. I’m not much of a sports-bettor, leaning more towards card games like blackjack and poker, so it’s only natural I still prefer the brick-and-mortar sportsbooks, but free money is always nice.

            The first deposit bonus gave me great odds for Alabama in The National Championship game and another free NFL bet, each of which lowered my risk and increased my payout.

            2) Central to this small streak is the reliance upon the moneyline. Most gamblers stick to the fabricated measure of the “point spread,” but this imaginary number has no impact on the motivations of players and coaches; they just want to win. I prefer the moneyline for favorites and usually take the point spread for the underdogs, which just buys a few points in addition to this natural desire to win.

Six of the eleven winners I picked failed to cover the point spread: I would’ve lost nearly every bet if I took the spread.

            3) Gamblers will groan about the lower payout of the moneyline favorites, so I offset that with parlays. Sure, a small payout for one easy winner isn’t much, but stacking a few easy winners can often offer even money. Less exposure, less stress.

            Every team I picked was nearly a touchdown favorite, but three of five parlays paid even money or better.

Bets and Results

Sportsbook	Date	Game	Spread/Result	WageràProfit
Bellagio	1/3/21	JAC@IND+	-15.5/-14
		BAL@CIN+	-13.5/-35
		ATL@TB	-7/-17	100à70
Bellagio	1/3/21	IND/BAL/TB+
		PIT@CLE+	-10/-2
		TEN@HOU	-7/-3	50à60
Bellagio	1/3/21	IND+
		WAS@PHI	-6.5/-6	100à50
Bellagio	1/9/21	TB@WAS+	-10/-8
	1/10/21	CHI@NO+	-11/-12
	1/11/21	OSU@ALA	-9.5/-28	300à300
DraftKings	1/11/21	ALA		1à100
DraftKings	1/11/21	ALA		99à27.72
FanDuel	1/11/21	ALA		5à125
FanDuel	1/11/21	OSU@ALA	U79.5/ 76 (LIVE)	50à47.17
DraftKings	1/16/21	LAR@GB+	-7/-14
	1/17/21	CLE@KC	-8/-5	FREEà56
DraftKings	1/17/21	KC		127.72à26
FanDuel	1/17/21	KC		25à5.21
FanDuel	1/17/21	KC		147.17à30.03
				1004.89à897.1

 I’m no professional sports gambler, and my luck comes and goes with the fleeting whims of Lady Chance. But I do enjoy a “taste” now and then, and this streak had some good sweats to it: the quick field goals battles (TEN@HOU), the bizarre coaching decisions (WAS@PHI), and miracle touchdown reversals (OSU@ALA).

After some close calls, the streak was died when Conor McGregor turned back into a pumpkin. And the bad luck followed when Kansas City fell apart in the Super Bowl and Ohio St kept up the losing streak, choking in the first round of March Madness.

Well, can’t win ‘em all.  

The Juice Will Murder You!

Experiment:

This NFL season I have decided to embark upon a great undertaking. Dismayed that I didn’t want to join his “free” Fantasy League with him, a friend has proposed that we pick every game on the 17 week schedule. I suppose this is the gambling equivalent of running a football marathon.

At first he simply wanted to pick the winner of each game. Perhaps I shouldn’t have, but I pointed out that I’d just take the favorite for each game, since I can’t beat the Vegas line. This seemed like no fun, so we settled picking against the lines he would post before the first game of each week. He even created a webpage that would time stamp and email picks to both of us. We agreed upon $25 a week and we were off and racing.

Since I will be forced to mull over the lines for each and every NFL game this season, as a side challenge, I decided to pick games that I feel particularly confident about, and place a theoretical $100 or $200 bet.

Hypothesis:

My season average against the predictions of professional bookmakers will likely fall somewhere between .450 and .550. But, if I were to place actual bets on the games, even if I proved better than 50% accurate, it is highly unlikely that I will be able to beat a basic 10% bookmaker’s commission, or “juice.”

Results:

NFL Week	Win/Loss	Opponent Record	My Record	My Season Total	Cumulative Average	Hypothetical Side Bet (total)
1	Loss	9-6-1	7-8-1	7-8-1	.467	-200(-200)
2	Win	6-10	9-7	16-15-1	.516	+100(-100)
3	Win	6-10	10-6	26-21-1	.553	+300(+200)
4	Win	6-9	9-6	35-27-1	.565	-100(+100)
5	Win	3-10-1	7-6-1	42-33-2	.560	+200(+300)
6	Win	6-7-1	7-6-1	49-39-3	.557	-200(+100)
7	Win	8-5	9-5	58-44-3	.568	+100(+200)
8	Loss	7-5-1	5-7-1*	63-51-4	.553	+100(+300)
9	Loss	8-3	7-6#	70-57-4	.551	-100(+200)
10	Tie	5-9	5-9	75-66-4	.532	-100(+100)
11	Win	2-10-1	11-2-1%	86-68-5	.558	+100(+200)
12	Win	7-9	8-8	94-76-5	.553	+100(+300)
13	Tie	6-10	6-10	100-86-5	.538	+100(+400)
14	Tie	9-6-1	9-6-1	109-92-6	.542	+200(+600)
15	Loss	12-3	9-6	118-98-6	.546	+200(+800)
16	Win	8-8	10-6	128-104-6	.552	-100(+700)
17	Win	6-10	10-6	138-110-6	.556	+100(+800)

*Missed TEN@HOU
#Opponent failed to pick JAC@NYJ and TEN@NO
%Opponent failed to pick NYJ@HOU

Analysis:
I'm tempted to feel pride at achieving a .556 average against the spread, slightly above my anticipated ceiling result. If I had placed $100 on every game I picked, I would've won $2,800 without calculating commission. For 254 games, at 10% ($2,540 in juice), that would leave me with a net profit of $260 on $25,400 worth of action. Peanuts.

When you factor in my undeniable luck this year, the stress free nature of hypothetical betting, and the significant advantage of capturing the lines on Wednesday, then waiting until Sunday to make picks, it's hard to imagine I could've earned a net gain.

My hypothetical side bet netted $800 on 62 wagers. After 10% commission, I am left with $180 profit on $6,800 action. Popcorn.