Experiment:
This
NFL season I have decided to embark upon a great undertaking. Dismayed that I
didn’t want to join his “free” Fantasy League with him, a friend has proposed
that we pick every game on the 17 week schedule. I suppose this is the gambling
equivalent of running a football marathon.
At
first he simply wanted to pick the winner of each game. Perhaps I shouldn’t
have, but I pointed out that I’d just take the favorite for each game, since I
can’t beat the Vegas line. This seemed like no fun, so we settled picking
against the lines he would post before the first game of each week. He even
created a webpage that would time stamp and email picks to both of us. We
agreed upon $25 a week and we were off and racing.
Since
I will be forced to mull over the lines for each and every NFL game this
season, as a side challenge, I decided to pick games that I feel particularly
confident about, and place a theoretical $100 or $200 bet.
Hypothesis:
My
season average against the predictions of professional bookmakers will likely
fall somewhere between .450 and .550. But, if I were to place actual bets on
the games, even if I proved better than 50% accurate, it is highly unlikely
that I will be able to beat a basic 10% bookmaker’s commission, or “juice.”
Results:
NFL
Week
|
Win/Loss
|
Opponent
Record
|
My
Record
|
My
Season Total
|
Cumulative
Average
|
Hypothetical
Side Bet (total)
|
1
|
Loss
|
9-6-1
|
7-8-1
|
7-8-1
|
.467
|
-200(-200)
|
2
|
Win
|
6-10
|
9-7
|
16-15-1
|
.516
|
+100(-100)
|
3
|
Win
|
6-10
|
10-6
|
26-21-1
|
.553
|
+300(+200)
|
4
|
Win
|
6-9
|
9-6
|
35-27-1
|
.565
|
-100(+100)
|
5
|
Win
|
3-10-1
|
7-6-1
|
42-33-2
|
.560
|
+200(+300)
|
6
|
Win
|
6-7-1
|
7-6-1
|
49-39-3
|
.557
|
-200(+100)
|
7
|
Win
|
8-5
|
9-5
|
58-44-3
|
.568
|
+100(+200)
|
8
|
Loss
|
7-5-1
|
5-7-1*
|
63-51-4
|
.553
|
+100(+300)
|
9
|
Loss
|
8-3
|
7-6#
|
70-57-4
|
.551
|
-100(+200)
|
10
|
Tie
|
5-9
|
5-9
|
75-66-4
|
.532
|
-100(+100)
|
11
|
Win
|
2-10-1
|
11-2-1%
|
86-68-5
|
.558
|
+100(+200)
|
12
|
Win
|
7-9
|
8-8
|
94-76-5
|
.553
|
+100(+300)
|
13
|
Tie
|
6-10
|
6-10
|
100-86-5
|
.538
|
+100(+400)
|
14
|
Tie
|
9-6-1
|
9-6-1
|
109-92-6
|
.542
|
+200(+600)
|
15
|
Loss
|
12-3
|
9-6
|
118-98-6
|
.546
|
+200(+800)
|
16
|
Win
|
8-8
|
10-6
|
128-104-6
|
.552
|
-100(+700)
|
17
|
Win
|
6-10
|
10-6
|
138-110-6
|
.556
|
+100(+800)
|
*Missed TEN@HOU
#Opponent failed to pick JAC@NYJ and TEN@NO
%Opponent failed to pick NYJ@HOU
Analysis:
I'm tempted to feel pride at achieving a .556 average against the spread, slightly above my anticipated ceiling result. If I had placed $100 on every game I picked, I would've won $2,800 without calculating commission. For 254 games, at 10% ($2,540 in juice), that would leave me with a net profit of $260 on $25,400 worth of action. Peanuts.
When you factor in my undeniable luck this year, the stress free nature of hypothetical betting, and the significant advantage of capturing the lines on Wednesday, then waiting until Sunday to make picks, it's hard to imagine I could've earned a net gain.
My hypothetical side bet netted $800 on 62 wagers. After 10% commission, I am left with $180 profit on $6,800 action. Popcorn.
#Opponent failed to pick JAC@NYJ and TEN@NO
%Opponent failed to pick NYJ@HOU
Analysis:
I'm tempted to feel pride at achieving a .556 average against the spread, slightly above my anticipated ceiling result. If I had placed $100 on every game I picked, I would've won $2,800 without calculating commission. For 254 games, at 10% ($2,540 in juice), that would leave me with a net profit of $260 on $25,400 worth of action. Peanuts.
When you factor in my undeniable luck this year, the stress free nature of hypothetical betting, and the significant advantage of capturing the lines on Wednesday, then waiting until Sunday to make picks, it's hard to imagine I could've earned a net gain.
My hypothetical side bet netted $800 on 62 wagers. After 10% commission, I am left with $180 profit on $6,800 action. Popcorn.
